Set mining in poker: playing small pairs

Set mining means calling with a small or medium pocket pair (2-2 to 9-9) to see a cheap flop, hoping to hit three of a kind (a set). You flop a set only about one time in 8.5 (11.8%), so set mining works only when you can win a big pot the times you hit.

The math

You miss about 7.5 times for every time you hit. So the money you can win when you hit should be at least 15–20 times the amount you call. This is called implied odds.

You call	Effective stacks needed (rough guide)
3 big blinds	45–60 big blinds
5 big blinds	75–100 big blinds
10 big blinds (a 3-bet)	150–200 big blinds

“Effective stack” means the smaller of your stack and your opponent’s.

Good spots to set mine

Deep stacks (100 big blinds or more).
Against players who pay off with one pair, like A-A or K-K.
In position, so you can control the pot.
Calling a single raise, not a 3-bet, at normal stack depths.

Bad spots

Short stacks in tournaments: it’s usually raise/all-in or fold. See push/fold.
Against tight players who rarely pay big pots.
Facing a raise and a re-raise.

If you miss the flop

With 4-4 on K-Q-8, you usually have the worst hand. Check and fold to bets unless you have a clear read. Don’t chase with a small pair.

When you hit

Build the pot: bet or raise, especially on draw-heavy boards. See value betting. Beware of straight and flush boards: a set is not always the nuts.

See the poker odds cheat sheet and starting hands.

FAQ

What is set mining in poker?

Calling with a small pocket pair to see a cheap flop and hoping to hit three of a kind.

How often do you flop a set?

About 11.8% of the time, roughly once every 8.5 flops.

When is set mining profitable?

When stacks are deep and you can win at least 15–20 times your call when you hit.

What should you do if you miss with a small pair?

Usually check and fold to bets, especially on boards with high cards.