Fold equity in poker: how to win pots without the best hand
Fold equity is the extra value you get from the chance that your opponent folds to your bet or raise. A bet can win two ways: the opponent folds right away, or you win at showdown. Fold equity is what makes bluffs and semi-bluffs profitable.
The simple idea
Section titled “The simple idea”Value of a bet ≈ (chance they fold × pot) + (chance they call × what you win or lose when called)
Example: the pot is $10. You shove $20 with a flush draw. If your opponent folds 40% of the time, you win $10 right there in those cases. When called, your draw still has about 35% equity. Together, the shove can be profitable even though you’re behind when called. See semi-bluff and expected value.
Who gives you fold equity
Section titled “Who gives you fold equity”| Opponent | Fold equity |
|---|---|
| Tight, cautious players (nits) | High |
| Thinking regulars | Medium: depends on your image and the board |
| Calling stations | Almost none |
| Players already all in or nearly | None |
See player types.
What increases fold equity
Section titled “What increases fold equity”- Bigger bets: harder to call than small ones (but they risk more).
- Good cards for your story: an ace on the turn after you raised preflop. See scare cards.
- Tight image: if you’ve been playing few hands, your bets look strong. See table image.
- Deeper stacks behind: a shove of 30bb threatens more than 8bb.
In tournaments
Section titled “In tournaments”Fold equity is why shoving is better than calling with short stacks: a shove can win the blinds and antes without a fight. Once your stack is so short that everyone calls, fold equity is gone — shove before that. See open shove and push/fold.
Common mistakes
Section titled “Common mistakes”- Bluffing calling stations: no fold equity.
- Min-raising as a bluff: too easy to call.
- Waiting too long in a tournament until your shove has no fold equity.
What is fold equity?
Section titled “What is fold equity?”The value you gain from the chance that your opponent folds to your bet or raise.
Why does fold equity matter?
Section titled “Why does fold equity matter?”It makes bluffs and semi-bluffs profitable even when you are behind if called.
Do calling stations give fold equity?
Section titled “Do calling stations give fold equity?”Almost none. Value bet them instead of bluffing.
How does fold equity work in tournaments?
Section titled “How does fold equity work in tournaments?”Shoving can win the blinds and antes uncontested; with very short stacks, fold equity disappears.