Preflop all-in matchups: pair vs overcards, domination and more
When two hands go all-in before the flop, the outcome is pure maths. Knowing the standard matchups helps you understand equity, avoid bad calls and stay calm when you lose a race.
The common matchups
Section titled “The common matchups”Approximate chance to win by the river (ties split), all-in preflop:
| Matchup | Example | Favourite wins |
|---|---|---|
| Big pair vs smaller pair | A♠A♥ vs K♠K♥ | ~82% |
| Pair vs smaller pair | 7♠7♥ vs 6♣6♦ | ~81% |
| Dominated hand (same high card) | A♠K♥ vs A♣Q♦ | ~74% |
| Pair vs one overcard | 8♠8♥ vs A♣2♦ | ~70% |
| Best hand vs worst hand | A♠K♠ vs 7♣2♦ | ~69% |
| Two overcards vs two undercards | A♠K♥ vs Q♠J♥ | ~65% |
| Pair vs two overcards (“coin flip”) | Q♠Q♥ vs A♣K♦ | ~57% |
| Small pair vs two overcards | 2♠2♥ vs A♣K♦ | ~53% |
| Suited connectors vs two big cards | J♠T♠ vs A♣K♦ | ~41% for J-T |
| Two unpaired cards vs aces | K♠Q♠ vs A♣A♦ | ~18% for K-Q |
What to learn from this
Section titled “What to learn from this”- A “coin flip” usually means a pair against two overcards: close to 50/50, with the pair a small favourite.
- Domination is brutal: A-Q against A-K wins only about a quarter of the time. That’s why weak aces are dangerous. See domination.
- Even the best hand vs the worst is only about 2 to 1. All-ins are never certain.
- Suited hands gain only a few percent over offsuit. See suited vs offsuit.
Using it at the table
Section titled “Using it at the table”To call an all-in, compare your equity with the pot odds. In tournaments, also think about ICM. Practise with calling all-ins in tournaments and push or fold.
What is a coin flip in poker?
Section titled “What is a coin flip in poker?”Usually a pair against two higher cards all-in preflop, close to 50/50; for example QQ vs AK is about 57/43.
How often do aces beat kings all-in preflop?
Section titled “How often do aces beat kings all-in preflop?”About 82% of the time.
How bad is A-Q against A-K?
Section titled “How bad is A-Q against A-K?”A-Q wins only about 26% of the time all-in preflop because it is dominated.
How often does the best starting hand beat the worst?
Section titled “How often does the best starting hand beat the worst?”AKs against 72o wins only about 69% of the time.