What is EV (expected value) in poker?

Expected value (EV) is how much a decision wins or loses on average if you made it many times. A +EV decision makes money in the long run; a -EV decision loses money, even if it sometimes wins. Poker is about making as many +EV decisions as possible.

The formula

EV = (chance to win × amount won) − (chance to lose × amount lost)

Example 1: calling with a draw

On the turn the pot is $80, your opponent bets $20, and you have a flush draw with 9 outs. You hit about 20% of the time on the river (see the odds).

Win: 20% × $100 (the $80 pot + the $20 bet) = +$20
Lose: 80% × $20 (your call) = −$16
EV = +$4 per call. Calling is +EV.

(For simplicity this ignores money you might win or lose on the river.)

Example 2: a bluff

The pot is $60 and you bluff $30. If your opponent folds 40% of the time:

Win: 40% × $60 = +$24
Lose: 60% × $30 = −$18
EV = +$6. The bluff is profitable. See when to bluff.

Pot odds are a shortcut

You don’t have to calculate EV every time. Compare your chance to win with the pot odds: if your equity is higher than the share of the pot you must pay, the call is +EV.

Decisions vs results

A +EV call can lose, and a −EV call can win. That’s variance. Judge your play by whether the decision was +EV, not by what happened in one hand. That’s also why poker is a skill game in the long run.

FAQ

What does EV mean in poker?

Expected value: the average amount a decision wins or loses if repeated many times.

What is a +EV decision?

A decision that makes money on average over the long run.

How do you calculate EV?

Chance to win times amount won, minus chance to lose times amount lost.

Can a +EV decision lose?

Yes. In a single hand anything can happen; EV shows the long-run average.