Bluff-to-value ratio: how often should you bluff?
When you bet the river, your opponent has to guess whether you’re bluffing. Theory gives a simple answer to “how often should I bluff?” — it depends on your bet size.
The basic idea
Section titled “The basic idea”Your bluffs should make your opponent indifferent to calling: they need the same pot odds you’re giving them. If they need 33% equity to call, about one-third of your betting range should be bluffs.
Bluff share = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet)
| River bet size | Bluffs in betting range | Bluff : value |
|---|---|---|
| 1/3 pot | ~20% | about 1 : 4 |
| 1/2 pot | 25% | 1 : 3 |
| 3/4 pot | 30% | about 1 : 2.3 |
| Pot | 33% | 1 : 2 |
| 2x pot | 40% | 2 : 3 |
Bigger bets allow more bluffs, because the caller needs to be right more often. See pot odds and polarized ranges.
On earlier streets
Section titled “On earlier streets”On the flop and turn, “bluffs” are usually semi-bluffs with equity, so you can bet more of them than on the river. See semi-bluff.
The low-stakes reality
Section titled “The low-stakes reality”At low stakes most opponents call too much. Against them, bluff less than the theory says and value bet more. Against players who fold too much, bluff more. See exploitative play.
Choosing your bluffs
Section titled “Choosing your bluffs”Pick bluffs with blockers to your opponent’s calling hands and no showdown value. See blockers and showdown value.
What is a good bluff-to-value ratio?
Section titled “What is a good bluff-to-value ratio?”It depends on bet size; for a pot-sized river bet about one bluff for every two value bets.
Why do bigger bets allow more bluffs?
Section titled “Why do bigger bets allow more bluffs?”The caller needs more equity to call, so a higher share of bluffs keeps them indifferent.
Should I follow the theoretical ratio at low stakes?
Section titled “Should I follow the theoretical ratio at low stakes?”Usually bluff less, because most low-stakes opponents call too much.
What makes a good river bluff?
Section titled “What makes a good river bluff?”A hand with no showdown value and blockers to your opponent’s calling hands.