Poker maths cheat sheet: the numbers every beginner needs
Keep this page open while you play or study. All the numbers you need for everyday decisions are here. For explanations, follow the links.
Outs and chances to hit
Section titled “Outs and chances to hit”| Draw | Outs | Flop → turn | Flop → river |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 9 | 19% | 35% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17% | 31.5% |
| Gutshot | 4 | 8.5% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 13% | 24% |
| Pocket pair to set | 2 | 4% | 8.5% |
| Flush + open-ender | 15 | 32% | 54% |
Quick estimate: outs × 4 on the flop (two cards to come), outs × 2 on the turn. See rule of 2 and 4.
Pot odds for calling
Section titled “Pot odds for calling”| Bet size | Equity needed to call |
|---|---|
| 1/4 pot | 17% |
| 1/3 pot | 20% |
| 1/2 pot | 25% |
| 2/3 pot | 29% |
| 3/4 pot | 30% |
| Pot | 33% |
| 2x pot | 40% |
For a bluff the formula is different: bet ÷ (pot + bet). A pot-sized bluff must work 50% of the time, a half-pot bluff 33%. See pot odds.
Preflop matchups (approximate)
Section titled “Preflop matchups (approximate)”| Matchup | Equity |
|---|---|
| Pair vs two lower cards (Q-Q vs J-10) | ~80 / 20 |
| Pair vs two overcards (7-7 vs A-K) | ~55 / 45 |
| Higher pair vs lower pair (K-K vs 9-9) | ~80 / 20 |
| Dominated hand (A-9 vs A-K) | ~26 / 74 |
| Two overcards vs two undercards (A-K vs 8-7) | ~60 / 40 |
Starting hand odds
Section titled “Starting hand odds”- Dealt a pocket pair: about 1 in 17 (5.9%)
- Dealt A-A: 1 in 221
- Dealt suited cards: about 1 in 4 (23.5%)
- Pocket pair flops a set or better: about 1 in 8.5 (11.8%)
See hand probabilities and poker odds.
How do I quickly estimate my chances to hit a draw?
Section titled “How do I quickly estimate my chances to hit a draw?”Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop or by 2 on the turn.
How much equity do I need to call a half-pot bet?
Section titled “How much equity do I need to call a half-pot bet?”25%.
How often must a pot-sized bluff work?
Section titled “How often must a pot-sized bluff work?”50% of the time to break even.
How often does a pocket pair flop a set?
Section titled “How often does a pocket pair flop a set?”About 11.8%, roughly 1 in 8.5.