What is variance in poker? Why good players lose
Variance is the natural up-and-down of your poker results. Because cards are random, you can play well and lose for a session, a week or longer, or play badly and win. Over many thousands of hands luck evens out and skill decides who wins. That’s why a good bankroll matters.
One hand vs many hands
Section titled “One hand vs many hands”You go all-in with A-A against K-K. You win about 82% of the time. In one hand you can still lose. Over 100 such all-ins you’ll win about 82 of them. Your job is to put money in as a favourite again and again; the results follow over time. See the poker odds cheat sheet.
Where variance is bigger
Section titled “Where variance is bigger”| Format | Variance |
|---|---|
| Cash games, full ring | Lower |
| 6-max cash | Medium |
| Big multi-table tournaments | High |
| Spin & Go / jackpot formats | Very high |
| PLO | Higher than Hold’em |
How big can downswings be?
Section titled “How big can downswings be?”Even winning players can lose many buy-ins in a row. In tournaments, going 100 or more buy-ins without a big score is possible for a winning player. That’s why tournament bankrolls are larger than cash bankrolls.
How to handle variance
Section titled “How to handle variance”- Use a proper bankroll: for example 20–30 buy-ins for cash and 100+ for tournaments as a beginner.
- Judge decisions, not results: was your call right with the pot odds?
- Track your results over a large number of hands, not one night.
- Don’t tilt: see how to stop tilt.
- Move down in stakes if your bankroll drops.
Is poker skill or luck? Read our answer: is poker a game of skill or luck.
What is variance in poker?
Section titled “What is variance in poker?”The natural swings in results caused by the random cards, even when you play well.
How do you deal with variance?
Section titled “How do you deal with variance?”Use a proper bankroll, judge your decisions instead of results and track results over many hands.
Which poker format has the highest variance?
Section titled “Which poker format has the highest variance?”Big tournaments and jackpot formats like Spin & Go have the highest variance.
Can a good player lose for a long time?
Section titled “Can a good player lose for a long time?”Yes. Long downswings happen even to winning players, especially in tournaments.