Results-oriented thinking: why good decisions can lose
Results-oriented thinking means judging a decision by what happened instead of by whether it was a good decision with the information you had. It’s one of the most common reasons beginners stop improving.
A simple example
Section titled “A simple example”You have A♠A♥ and go all-in preflop against K♠K♥. You are about an 82% favourite. The board brings a king and you lose.
- Results-oriented: “Going all-in with aces was a mistake.”
- Decision-oriented: “Great decision. I’ll lose this 18% of the time.”
The opposite also happens: you call with a weak draw without the right pot odds, hit it, and think the call was good. It wasn’t, and repeating it will cost you money.
Why it hurts your game
Section titled “Why it hurts your game”- You stop making good plays after they lose a few times.
- You repeat bad plays that happened to win.
- You go on tilt because you feel “unlucky” instead of focusing on what you control.
Four questions instead of “did I win?”
Section titled “Four questions instead of “did I win?””- What did I know at the time (position, stacks, opponent’s range)?
- What were my options, and what was each one’s expected value?
- Did I have the right odds or fold equity?
- Would I make the same decision again with the same information?
Habits that help
Section titled “Habits that help”- Review hands without looking at the result first. Cover the river, decide, then check. See how to review your hands.
- Track results over thousands of hands, not one session. Read what is variance.
- Keep a poker journal of decisions you’re unsure about.
- Avoid rabbit hunting: it trains you to think about results.
Recommended reading: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, in our list of the best poker books.
What is results-oriented thinking?
Section titled “What is results-oriented thinking?”Judging a decision by its outcome instead of by whether it was correct with the information you had.
Was it a mistake if I lost with aces all-in preflop?
Section titled “Was it a mistake if I lost with aces all-in preflop?”No. Against kings you win about 82% of the time; losing the other 18% is variance, not a mistake.
How can I stop being results-oriented?
Section titled “How can I stop being results-oriented?”Review hands without looking at the result, think in expected value and judge your play over thousands of hands.
Is a winning call always a good call?
Section titled “Is a winning call always a good call?”No. A call without the right odds is a mistake even when it wins.